T1 INSIGHTS™ · FY27 PREVIEW
The Air Force just became the most addressable customer in defense
The FY27 request grows the Department of the Air Force 33% in a single year, while it rewrites its acquisition rules and opens new on-ramps for non-traditional firms. We read all 560+ budget lines so you don’t have to.
$338.8B
FY27 DAF budget request
+345%
Space Force procurement
2031
SBIR locked in through
Treble One Insights · FY26 → FY27 Budget Insights · June 2026
What the FY27 books tell us
Four shifts every defense-tech firm should be tracking
SPACE GOES OPERATIONAL
+$14.8B procurement
USSF buying jumps $4.3B → $19.1B. A new $7.1B space-based AMTI line replaces the cancelled E-7, the #1 increase in the entire budget.
MUNITIONS SURGE
Missile procurement +81%
AMRAAM, JASSM, JATM and LRSO each gain $0.6 to $1.4B; HACM enters production and FAMM buys 1,000 low-cost cruise missiles. Capacity is the demand signal.
NEW PROGRAMS OPEN
CCA enters production
Collaborative Combat Aircraft takes its first $1.15B buy plus +$1.2B R&D. Three of the top five R&D increases are brand-new space starts.
THE RULES CHANGED
PEO → PAE + SBIR to 2031
Portfolio acquisition executives now own requirements through contracting, and SBIR adds $30M Strategic Breakthrough Awards.
THE FULL BRIEF
10 slides: budget growth · top procurement & R&D movers · the PEO→PAE map · SBIR on-ramps · the T1 Read. brian@treble-one.com
AFWERX & SBIR · what changed
The on-ramp got bigger, and sharper
~$1.8B
projected FY26-27 USAF SBIR range
~$1.4B
AFWERX annual budget, ~$900M Air Force
$30M → $70M
top award with VC matching funds
$80-200M+
concentrated priority-area bets
1
A NEW OPERATING MODEL
AFWERX separates from Spark and refocuses on commercialization, with investments aligned to acquisition roadmaps and A5/7-validated capability gaps from the outset, and bridges to PEOs and program offices built early.
2
FOCUSED MONEY, NOT SPRAY-AND-PRAY
Broad open topics give way to focused open topics (15-20 Phase 1 awards each, e.g. counter-UAS), ~$20M upfront program-office (IPAC) commitments, and up to 50% of budget reserved for traditional S&T topics.
3
A LADDER WORTH CLIMBING
Tiered Phase 2: ~$2M (2A, ~10 companies) → ~$10M (2B, top performers) → $30M Strategic Breakthrough ($60 to $70M with VC co-investment). Staged 10 → 5 → 1 downselects unlock Phase 3 sole-source.
TIMING
FY25 funds largely rescinded; FY26 awaits signature. TAC 5 / STRAT 5 calls expected once unlocked. Position now, left of solicitation. brian@treble-one.com
Source: AFWERX program engagement (Jun 2026) · projections subject to FY26/FY27 appropriations
Air Force Insights · Level 1 · Preview
Who writes the checks
Who shapes the requirements
A field map of the U.S. Air Force & Space Force enterprise, built for founders and business-development leaders selling into defense.
Treble One Insights
The Problem
Most companies meet the Air Force backwards
The Air Force and Space Force spend more than $80B a year on technology, but to a newcomer it’s one jargon-heavy maze. So good companies pitch the office that can’t fund them, ask influencers for money they don’t control, and miss the window where a decision actually gets made.
Wrong target
Pitching an office with no budget or no role in your problem.
Wrong ask
Asking influencers for funding they don’t actually control.
Wrong moment
Engaging after the requirement and budget are already set.
Start with the mission
Before the org chart: what are the missions
Every dollar traces back to one of these core functions. Speak to them and you sound like an insider.
U.S. AIR FORCE
Air Superiority
freedom to attack
Global Strike
any target, any time
Rapid Mobility
delivery on demand
Command & Control
total flexibility
U.S. SPACE FORCE
Space Superiority
counter space threats
Global Mission Ops
see, communicate, navigate
Assured Space Access
deploy & sustain in orbit
The Skeleton
It’s complicated, but the spine is simple
The Air Force isn’t one thing. It’s two services inside the Department of the Air Force, one of three departments in the DoD. A single civilian leads both services and the department: the senior military leaders are unique to each service.
693,000
people across Active Duty, Reserve, Air National Guard, and civilian roles.
The full report maps this all the way down: Secretariat, Air Staff, MAJCOMs, and field commands, with who leads each.
Department of the Air Force (DAF)
Secretary of the Air Force · civilian
U.S. Air Force
led by the Chief of Staff (CSAF) · military
U.S. Space Force
led by the Chief of Space Operations (CSO) · military
The Mental Model
The whole enterprise, on one map
The one distinction that changes everything
Strip away the acronyms and every organization you’ll meet plays one of two roles:
Check-writers hold budget authority: they can fund, sponsor, or contract with you. On the map they connect to industry with a solid line.
Influencers rarely fund you directly, but they shape what gets funded. On the map they connect by a dashed line.
Read the map and you already know who to ask for what.
How to use the map
Two roles. Two completely different asks
CHECK-WRITERS
Solid line · holds budget authority
- Can fund, sponsor, or contract with you directly.
- Science & Technology · Acquisition · Headquarters (SAF/HAF)
- Your ask: funding, a sponsor, a contract vehicle.
INFLUENCERS
Dashed line · shapes what gets funded
- Rarely write checks, but decide what gets bought.
- End Users (MAJCOMs & COCOMs) · Congress
- Your ask: advocacy, requirements, a letter of support.
The Players
Five communities you’ll need to know
Discovers and matures new technology through AFRL. Funds early-stage R&D.
Buys the Air Force’s materiel through Program Executive Offices (PEOs).
Sets policy and shapes the budget that everyone else lives within.
End-User (COCOM / MAJCOM)
Fights the wars and defines the requirements technology must meet.
Turns the President’s budget request into law, and can add to it.
The Method
For every community, four questions
The same simple framework, applied to all five communities, plus Congress. This preview answers the first two. The full report answers all four.
What they do?
IN THIS PREVIEW
What do they care about?
IN THIS PREVIEW
What can they do for your company?
FULL REPORT
Where the value lives
Anyone can find an org chart. Questions 3 and 4 are the judgment calls: what each office can actually do for you, and the precise ask that moves things forward.
Sample Community
Science & Technology
QUESTION 01
What they do?
- Led by the Technology Executive Officer; organized into Technology Directorates within AFRL.
- Funds research and maturation, typically up to prototype (about TRL 6).
- Holds budget authority and broad discretion, including over SBIR.
QUESTION 02
What do they care about?
- Scientists and engineers chasing military-relevant breakthroughs.
- Interest fades as work shifts from discovery to engineering.
- Traction comes from aligning with their research and AF priorities.
QUESTION 03
What can they do for your company?
The Money
The non-dilutive funding ladder
How early-stage defense tech gets paid for. Climb it in the right order and you can fund years of development without giving up equity.
SBIR Phase I
$50K to $250K
about 6 months · prove feasibility
SBIR Phase II
about $1.25M
about 18 months · build a prototype
TACFI / STRATFI
$375K to $15M
scale up with matching funds
Phase III
No ceiling
sole-source production
In the full report: how to sequence the phases, why most SBIRs stall before transition, and how to line up the government and private matching funds that unlock TACFI and STRATFI.
The Buyer’s Mind
What a government buyer is silently asking
10%
is roughly how much of the decision is about how good your technology is.
The other 90% is everything on the right, and most founders never prepare for it.
How much better is it than what we have today?
Is it qualified to military standard, and how?
Can you actually manufacture it at volume?
Have other DoD or commercial customers used it?
Do you have a contract vehicle we can buy through?
How will you support and sustain it in the field?
What data rights do we get? Any ITAR concerns?
Does your team include foreign nationals?
Follow the money upstream
Funding flows downhill from strategy
1
National Defense Strategy
The DoD sets the security themes and defense priorities.
2
Critical Technology Areas
OSD R&E names the technology areas worth investing in.
3
USAF Strategy
Modernization · Readiness & Sustainment · Deterrence.
4
Capability Development Priorities
What the Air Force actually buys toward.
Swim with the current.
Show how your technology maps onto this cascade and you’re aligned with where money is already headed, not asking anyone to invent a new reason to fund you.
The report names the current priorities, the Secretary’s focus, and the emerging programs reshaping the budget right now.
What you get
What the full report puts in your hands
Named org charts
Every AFRL directorate, all the Program Executive Offices, and MAJCOM leadership, with who’s who.
The complete engagement playbook
Questions 3 and 4 answered for all five communities: what each can do for you, and the exact ask.
Budgets, broken down
How the technology spend splits across the force, beyond the funding-ladder ranges shown here.
2026 change intelligence
What the AFRL reorganization, the shift from PEOs to portfolios, and acquisition reform mean for you.
100+
pages of market intelligence
Named
leadership for every office
2026
reorg & acquisition-reform intel
Why it’s different
Not just an org chart: a read on how to win
Throughout the report, “T1 Insights” translate structure into strategy. One, on the house:
T1 INSIGHT
AFRL is built to mature technology to about TRL 6, and no further. Knowing exactly where their interest tapers off tells you when to stop asking them for money and start lining up your next funder, the acquisition office or a STRATFI match, before momentum stalls.